Week 3 Picks

16 games, 15 home favorites. Whatever. This week is lame. I would never bet any of my own money this week. Or any week. Except last week. That would have been sweet.

Last week: 10-5
This season: 17-14

ATLANTA(-4.5) over Kansas City

• I wouldn't even bet on Tyler Thigpen with your money. Plus, Matty Ice has looked pretty competent so far. Or at least un-incarcerated. Which makes him better than the other Falcons quarterback. Also, Mike Turner has shown he can flat out abuse a dubious run defense and after seeing McFadden go bezerk in the second half last week at Kansas City, I can't envision a way the Chiefs can keep this game within 4.5 points.

Oakland(+8.5) over BUFFALO

• Speaking of Darren McFadden, I hear he might be out this week. And if he's out, so is this pick. The Bills look half not-crappy this year, no?

CHICAGO(-3.5) over Tampa Bay

TENNESSEE(-4.5) over Houston

Carolina(+3.5) over MINNESOTA

Miami(+12.5) over NEW ENGLAND

• The Pats just don't get the benefit of a 12.5 point line. Unless they're playing the Rams.

NEW YORK GIANTS(-13.5) over Cincinnati

WASHINGTON(-3.5) over Arizona

DENVER(-5.5) over New Orleans

SAN FRANCISCO(-3.5) over Detroit

St. Louis(+9.5) over SEATTLE

BALTIMORE(-1.5) over Cleveland

PHILADELPHIA(-2.5) over Pittsburgh

• Please, be kind. I didn't want to do this. Really, I didn't. The 2.5 is what a home team generally gets just for being the home team, so essentially this is a toss up. But Keisel is injured. Ben's shoulder is suspect. They couldn't have possibly looked less sharp last week. Philly can put up some big points because there is no way you can contain all of their weapons. Westbrook will have at least 100 yards from scrimmage this week, like he does every other week, and having someone as versatile as him in the backfield can really tie up linebackers. And the linebackers are the Steelers most important defensive asset. I have a hard time seeing anyone in the secondary keeping up with DeSean Jackson. If the Steelers offense of week 1 shows up, this will be an interesting game. I'm just worried that they won't. However, if it's close late in the 4th quarter, I like their chances. McNabb is not particularly clutch (see: last week). I'm just not convinced it will be that close.

Jacksonville(+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

• Without Bob Sanders, Indy's defense is very ordinary.

Dallas(-2.5) over GREEN BAY

• I fully expect this to be a shootout. Green Bay has started this year the same way they started last year: winning without a running game. This cannot work for much longer. Dallas' defense last week was lacking in the pass coverage department early against Philadelphia. But when it mattered, the Cowboy secondary really clamped down and as a result their rather ferocious pass rush was able to keep McNabb from finding anything open downfield. It's hard to give 2.5 on the road against the second best team in your conference, but Dallas looks completely energized.
  

New York Jets(+8.5) over SAN DIEGO

• San Diego has too many defensive injuries to contain Favre. Plus, the referees clearly want them to lose.