Steelers vs. Texans

The 2008 edition of Pro Football Prospectus (which is absolutely amazing) challenges the assumption that teams that win do so because they run the football. PFP believes it's the other way around.

There are two reasons why nearly every beat writer and television analyst still repeats the tired oldschool mantra that "establishing the run" is the secret to winning football games. The first problem is confusing cause and effect. There are exceptions -- usually involving the Indianapolis Colts without Bob Sanders -- but, in general, winning teams have a lot of carries because their running backs are running out the clock at the end of wins, not because they are running wild early in games.

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A sister statement to "you have to establish the run" is "team X is 5-1 when running back John Doe runs for at least 100 yards." Unless John Doe is ripping off six-yard gains LaDainian Tomlinson-style, the team isn't winning because of his 100-yard games. He's putting up 100-yard games because his team is winning.

I find this to be interesting and at least semi-accurate. Certainly it is true that running out the clock is the strategy of choice when a team has the lead. But the team first has to have a decent run game in order for that to be successful, else they should go three-and-out frequently and risk giving their opponent too many chances with the ball. Additionally, a team that isn't any good at running the ball will be undone by being so one-dimensional.

This was apparent Sunday as the Steelers abused Houston, smacking them down 38-17. The Steelers were excellent on so many different levels it's difficult to find something to critique. The hip concern heading into this year was the porous O-line; the consensus was that they were so bad Willie wouldn't be able to run and Ben would hardly be able to take a snap without being clobbered by defenders. Despite some early struggles for Willie and Mario Williams getting to Ben twice, I thought the line play was outstanding. Ben saw some pressure, but I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing as Ben is arguably a better quarterback when he's flushed out of the pocket. The downside to this, of course, is Ben's fondness of hanging on to the ball for too long and his occasional failure to sense when a defender is approaching (his fumble today, for instance).

Defensively, they were nearly flawless. Schaub was able to complete a fairly high number of passes, but faced consistent pressure. Lamaar Woodley was a beast, at one point in the first quarter mauling Schaub from the blindside. Woodley would go on to add three tackles, a pick, and a fumble recovery, while James Harrison recorded nine tackles and three sacks. And the defense as a whole looked incredibly fast, aware, and tackled better than I can ever remember them tackling.

Either way, this game today was so freaking much fun to watch. I loved how hard they played, even into the third quarter when they were up by 20+. Bill Cowher's Steelers could never do that, and that's why the they consistently underperformed in the playoffs under him. They never had the instinct to continually and mercilessly pummel their opponents even when they had a comfortable lead. Today they played balls-out through the third quarter and as a result got to rest a lot of their starters in the fourth period (which was huge for Ben who seemed to twist an ankle late in the first half). But they're going to have to play like this all season long, because their schedule simply doesn't relent after this week.

Aaaaand some other shit.

• I'd like to say I can't believe San Diego lost, but they pulled this shit last year. And Rivers looked sharp. So they'll probably win like 13 games.
• I think rooting for people to get injured is a crappy thing to do, and there's a certain karmic fear I have about wishing ill upon people in general. That said, I kind of love that Brady went down and that the prognosis is "not good." Apparently the spleen-less wonder Chris Simms reported to New England tonight to work out for the team and to take a physical. Yikes.
• I didn't think Brett Favre could come to the Jets and turn them into a playoff team, and even though he looked good and Tom Terrific could be gone for the year, I'm not quite sold. I'm sorry, but you have to do more than beat the Dolphins by 6 to be taken seriously.
  
• Yes, this Brady injury likely completely fucks my playoff picks.
• The Ravens and Bengals are really, really awful.
• So the consensus AFC favorites, Jacksonville, San Diego, and Indianapolis all lost, and the Pats (who nearly lost to the Chiefs) are likely going to be without Brady for at least a few weeks. So who you got now? Pittsburgh? Buffalo? New York? Tennessee (who beat Jacksonville)? Maybe it doesn't change anything.