9.25.2008

Week 4 Picks; Because I Love You Too, Jay

This week, with 20% more cheekiness!

Last week: 12-4
This Season: 29-18


CINCINNATI
(-3.5) over Cleveland
  • I get my lines from ESPN's Pigskin Pick'Em game, which is probably a mistake. Oftentimes they're different from the lines I find on Sportsbook or Bodog, and they're always stretched to half a point to avoid ties. This is asinine. But since I started it like this (because it's a really easy way to keep track of my progress) I have to continue. I guess. Anyway, the reason this came to my attention was because I was looking at over/unders today on this site, and I noticed the over/under for this game is 44.5. Then I noticed that Cleveland scores an average of 8.7 points per game, and Cincinnati scores an average of 13.3 points per game. Which makes 22 points. Which when multiplied over three games equals 66 total points between the two of them for the entire season. And they're supposed to score somewhere in the neighborhood of 44 on Sunday? Surely you jest!
TENNESSEE(-3.5) over Minnesota
  • Minnesota is starting Gus Ferotte at quarterback in this game. He is aged 37 years. Tennessee is starting Kerry Collins at quarterback in this game. He is aged 35 years. Combined, they are only slightly older than Brett Favre. However, combined they are still not older than John McCain
Denver(-9.5) over KANSAS CITY

San Francisco(+6.5) over NEW ORLEANS
  • People here in San Francisco are really geared up over J. T. O'Sullivan. He's a product of U.C. Davis. Also, he fits into Alex Smith's helmet, which is a lucky coincidence. This has people here in the City By The Bay thinking playoffs.
Arizona(+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS
  • Kurt Warner is the leagues second highest rated passer at 111.7. That just blows my fucking mind.
Green Bay(+1.5) over TAMPA BAY
  • Speaking of Favre, he had this to say regarding the Packers' strong three game start: "When they have 16 good ones, then call me." Nah, no hard feelings there.
Atlanta(+7.5) over CAROLINA
  • I just saw two consecutive commercials during Jeopardy! that blew my mind. The first was for some sort of colon medicine, where the star of the commercial posited the question, "Is your colon trying to send you a message?" And the second was a commercial for some stuff that freezes off warts on toes and fingers and such. And I'm left to ask myself, how do these people wind up in these commercials? Does someone read in a casting call, "WANTED: woman in her late thirties to stand in front of an 8'x3' stand-up poster with diagram of large intestine to flag down unsuspecting pedestrians on the streets of New York City to talk about their colons," and say, "Hell yes. This is the break I've been waiting for!" And a commercial about warts? Come on. That's almost worse than taking a gig on Law & Order.
JACKSONVILLE(-7.5) over Houston

San Diego(-7.5) over OAKLAND

Buffalo(-8.5) over ST. LOUIS

Washington(+11.5) over DALLAS
  • I initially had Dallas covering. Then I changed it. I don't know why. Sometimes I just feel like Dallas doesn't bother to pay attention for large portions of games, and then someone calls Wade Phillips on one of those sideline phones and is like, "Yeah, so check the scoreboard. Okay? Okay." They always end up winning, but sometimes they have to dodge Tony Romo fumbles and T.O. dropped passes and other assorted dumbassery. And 11.5 points in a divisionl game would be a real blowout.
Philadelphia(-3.5) over CHICAGO
  • I can't wrap my head around this line. I guess the line-makers know more about the severity of Brian Westbrook's injury (and it must be much, much more severe than just a sprained ankle for the line to be this close). Chicago doesn't play anywhere near the same game Philly does. Even if the Eagles have to go with Kevin Kolb and Correll Buckhalter (I did not bother to check either of those spellings, Zhi), I have to believe Philly wins by more than 4.
Baltimore(+7.5) over PITTSBURGH
  • Do you really think that Steelers team from last week could beat anyone (besides the Rams) by more than 7 points? Would you put your own money on it? Highly dubious! I am well aware that the Ravens (2-0) have beaten the measly Browns (0-3) and Bengals (0-3), but YOU must be aware that the Steelers have only beaten the Texans (0-2) and the Browns (0-3) (equally measly!) . Are you aware of that? Huh? Are you? Yeah. AND. Willie Parker is hurt (even though I don't think that' necessarily a bad thing. Mendenhall seems like the better suited of the two for a game against the Ravens). And so is Casey Hampton (even though the defense didn't seem bothered by his absence last week). The difference will be, clearly, the o-line of the Steelers and Baltimore's Joe Flacco. No, he's not the Raven's accountant, silly! He's their quarterback! The Steeler's o-line cannot possibly be as bad as they seemed last week. I have to believe that was an anomoly. I have to believe it, or else the rest of this season has no meaning. And Joe Flacco, who has looked good, hasn't faced a pass rush like the one he will face Monday. I expect to see him in full panic mode by the second quarter. If he isn't then LeBeau isn't doing his job. So, just like with the Browns a couple of weeks ago, I think the Steelers will win. But I think the Raven's D is good enough to keep them in it.

9.23.2008

Week 4 Power Rankings: Suck it, New England!

That's right. ALL of New England. Haha. Very few things can me feel better about the beat down the Steelers received in Philly. New England getting embarrassed at home by the Dolphins is one of them. Serves them right. Dicks.

With regards to the Steelers, I have nothing to say. I didn't get to watch the game, so I'm going to pretend like it didn't happen. This week is a huge freaking game against the Ravens who, even though they haven't played anybody, have a scary looking defense. But last week? Those nine sacks? Never happened. And hopefully Mike Tomlin will do something to make Bruce Arians realize that you can't do the same shit over and over again and hope it will eventually work. ESPECIALLY WHEN THE OTHER TEAM IS GOING TO BLITZ EVERY FUCKING THIRD DOWN AND YOUR OFFENSIVE LINE SUCKS.

So, rankings.

Biggest Rise: Falcons (20 to 12)
Vikings (24 to 16)

Biggest Drop: Patriots (8 to 20)

LAST_WEEK

RECORD

RANKINGS_INDEX

1

3

3-0

.7529

2

1

3-0

.7441

3

7

3-0

.7123

4

5

2-0

.7032

5

6

3-0

.7027

6

12

2-1

.6851

7

4

3-0

.6685

8

2

2-1

.6298

9

14

2-1

.5943

10

15

2-1

.5672

11

10

2-1

.5636

12

20

1-1

.5633

13

17

1-1

.5623

14

9

2-1

.5548

15

11

2-1

.5097

16

24

1-2

.4855

17

22

1-2

.4939

18

19

1-2

.4856

19

13

1-2

.4802

20

8

2-1

.4766

21

23

1-2

.4743

22

28

1-2

.4626

23

30

1-2

.4557

24

18

1-2

.4429

25

16

1-2

.3942

26

21

1-2

.3839

27

25

0-3

.3458

28

26

0-3

.2892

29

27

0-2

.2812

30

29

0-3

.2403

31

31

0-3

.2206

32

320-3.0082

9.18.2008

Week 3 Picks

16 games, 15 home favorites. Whatever. This week is lame. I would never bet any of my own money this week. Or any week. Except last week. That would have been sweet.

Last week: 10-5
This season: 17-14

ATLANTA(-4.5) over Kansas City



  • I wouldn't even bet on Tyler Thigpen with your money. Plus, Matty Ice has looked pretty competent so far. Or at least un-incarcerated. Which makes him better than the other Falcons quarterback. Also, Mike Turner has shown he can flat out abuse a dubious run defense and after seeing McFadden go bezerk in the second half last week at Kansas City, I can't envision a way the Chiefs can keep this game within 4.5 points.


Oakland(+8.5) over BUFFALO



  • Speaking of Darren McFadden, I hear he might be out this week. And if he's out, so is this pick. The Bills look half not-crappy this year, no?

CHICAGO(-3.5) over Tampa Bay

TENNESSEE(-4.5) over Houston

Carolina(+3.5) over MINNESOTA

Miami(+12.5) over NEW ENGLAND



  • The Pats just don't get the benefit of a 12.5 point line. Unless they're playing the Rams.

NEW YORK GIANTS(-13.5) over Cincinnati

WASHINGTON(-3.5) over Arizona

DENVER(-5.5) over New Orleans

SAN FRANCISCO(-3.5) over Detroit

St. Louis(+9.5) over SEATTLE

BALTIMORE(-1.5) over Cleveland

PHILADELPHIA(-2.5) over Pittsburgh



  • Please, be kind. I didn't want to do this. Really, I didn't. The 2.5 is what a home team generally gets just for being the home team, so essentially this is a toss up. But Keisel is injured. Ben's shoulder is suspect. They couldn't have possibly looked less sharp last week. Philly can put up some big points because there is no way you can contain all of their weapons. Westbrook will have at least 100 yards from scrimmage this week, like he does every other week, and having someone as versatile as him in the backfield can really tie up linebackers. And the linebackers are the Steelers most important defensive asset. I have a hard time seeing anyone in the secondary keeping up with DeSean Jackson. If the Steelers offense of week 1 shows up, this will be an interesting game. I'm just worried that they won't. However, if it's close late in the 4th quarter, I like their chances. McNabb is not particularly clutch (see: last week). I'm just not convinced it will be that close.



Jacksonville(+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS



  • Without Bob Sanders, Indy's defense is very ordinary.


Dallas(-2.5) over GREEN BAY



  • I fully expect this to be a shootout. Green Bay has started this year the same way they started last year: winning without a running game. This cannot work for much longer. Dallas' defense last week was lacking in the pass coverage department early against Philadelphia. But when it mattered, the Cowboy secondary really clamped down and as a result their rather ferocious pass rush was able to keep McNabb from finding anything open downfield. It's hard to give 2.5 on the road against the second best team in your conference, but Dallas looks completely energized.
New York Jets(+8.5) over SAN DIEGO



  • San Diego has too many defensive injuries to contain Favre. Plus, the referees clearly want them to lose.

9.16.2008

Week 3 Power Rankings: heh heh, uh, the Cardinals?

Yeah. Well, like I said, it isn't perfect. The rankings formula weighs defense a little more than offense, and the Cardinals allow a minuscule 11.5 points/game, and 263.5 yards/game. Those numbers put them near the top of the NFL. Combine that with their top-10 offense and a 2-0 record, and you get #2 in the rankings. The Ravens are probably too high also, but with their game being hurricaned-out, their great defensive performance in week one carries them into the top-ten for another week.

Think about these rankings this way. If 12 teams make the playoffs every year, theoretically those 12 should appear, in some order, in any overall ranking of the top 12 teams in the league. And if you look at my top 12 you'll find, with the exception of the Ravens, 12 teams that look as though they're playoff teams at this point of the year. Right? Right? Anyone?

Biggest Rise: Raiders (30 to 18)
Biggest Fall: Falcons (7 to 20)


LAST_WEEK

RECORD

RANKINGS_INDEX

1

8

2-0

.7685

2

12

2-0

.7211

3

2

2-0

.7161

4

3

2-0

.6960

5

6

1-0

.6775

6

10

2-0

.6673

7

4

2-0

.6623

8

11

2-0

.6621

9

5

2-0

.6599

10

16

2-0

.6492

11

15

2-0

.6299

12

1

1-1

.6291

13

9

1-1

.5929

14

25

1-1

.5446

15

22

1-1

.5257

16

13

1-1

.5012

17

20

1-1

.4876

18

30

1-1

.4768

19

14

1-1

.4730

20

7

1-1

.4681

21

24

1-1

.4273

22

19

0-2

.4024

23

23

0-2

.3883

24

17

0-2

.3765

25

26

0-2

.3352

26

31

0-2

.3236

27

27

0-1

.3143

28

29

0-2

.3097

29

21

0-2

.3048

30

18

0-2

.2893

31

28

0-2

.2468

32

32 0-2 .0074