Week 6 Picks

Last week I went 9-5. You don't know this because I didn't publicly post my picks. (Week five was a brutal week for me personally. Just had no time.) But I did it. And the week before I went 5-8. So for the season that makes me 43-31. And not to be a tool about it, but that's really effing good. If I was a grown man with the requisite onions in the bag and cash in the bank account, I'd be moderately wealthier than I am now. But, alas, I have no balls. And I know the first week I decide I want to actually put some real money on these games all my picks will backfire and be out a cool $100 or whatever and you'll find me in the corner of my apartment curled up crying. It's just not worth it. So I will continue to dispense useful, correct, insightful NFL picks for the rest of you to make money on. All two of you who read.

Home team in bold caps. Line from ESPN.


ATLANTA(+2.5) over Chicago

• I'd like to welcome Michael Turner to my fantasy team by picking the Falcons at home with the points.

Carolina(+2.5) over TAMPA BAY

• Carolina gets the Vegas-standard 2.5 points for being the road team in a pretty much straight-up game. I like the Panthers because their defense has been spectacular lately, and I can't actually name a single Tampa Bay offensive player.

St. Louis(+13.5) over WASHINGTON

• The only team that ever earned being two touchdown favorites was the 2007 Patriots.

Miami(+3.5) over HOUSTON

• I really like what Miami has been doing this year. It's like they decided they can't compete in the NFL the way the game is supposed to be played, so they're running an offense that no opposing defense could possibly justify practicing for. And I love the look on opposing coaches faces as they realize they're in a game with a team who thinks it's in the Pac 10.

Baltimore(+4.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

• Baltimore has been extremely competitive over the past couple of weeks against the Steelers (4-1) and the Titans (5-0). Meanwhile, the Colts to this point have lost to the Bears, edged the Vikings, lost to the Jaguars, and should have lost to the Texans. They score barely over 20 points per game and don't have a particularly good defense. But at some point I feel like Indy is just going to break out and Peyton is going to realize he has pretty much the same players as last season PLUS a healthy Marvin Harrison and they're going to put up 30+ the rest of the season and cruise to homefield inthe playoffs. Also, yes, I am picking Joe Flacco on the road.
  

Detroit(+13.5) over MINNESOTA

• Minnesota is not the 2007 Patriots. Although Detroit might be one of the worst teams ever.

NEW ORLEANS(-7.5) over Oakland

• This is a line I simply can't understand. Oakland, on the road, with an interim head coach and two banged up running backs with Al Davis still in charge of the team.

Cincinnati(+5.5) over NEW YORK JETS

DENVER(-3.5) over Jacksonville

• I think Jacksonville sucks. Really, they got dominated last week. Had it not been for the first quarter pick-6 and a phantom pass interference call, the Jags might not have scored more than 13 points. Meanwhile, they were dominated by an offense running on fumes and painkillers. I just don't see a way Denver fails to put up less than 25 points. Tease this one out, baby.

Dallas(-5.5) over ARIZONA

• This could easily be incorrect. The Cowboys aren't closing shitty teams out like they should, and the Cardinals are putting up way too many points for the offense they have. So this is just the kind of game Dallas would lose. But the Arizona defense isn't good enough, I don't think, to stop Romo and Owens.

Philadelphia(-5.5) over SAN FRANCISCO.

• I was offered two free tickets to go to this game, and I'm passing them up to go to fleet week to watch the Blue Angels. I mean, the Niners really suck. And nobody in Philly even realized the Eagles are playing, because they're all so catatonic that the Phillies are up 2-0 on the Dodgers in the NLCS.

Green Bay(+2.5) over SEATTLE

SAN DIEGO(-6.5) New England

• Wow. Remember when you saw this game on the Schedule in August and thought, 'I bet these two teams will be undefeated going into this game,'? Don't you? Oh, that's right. That was just me. Anyway, I can't tell you how much I don't care about this "rematch" of last year's AFC championship game, and I'm glad about that. I'm glad that, for the first time in years, I feel like we won't see one of the same two teams in the AFC championship game. I think this is one of the best developments for the NFL in years. Brady's injury opened up the AFC like it hasn't been in ages, not so much because it makes the Patriots easier to beat, but because it makes other teams feel like the Patriots are easier to beat. Trust me, if Brady were healthy, the Dolphins wouldn't have beaten the Pats not so much because the Pats are that much better, but because Brady with the Patriots makes them seem invincible.

New York Giants(-7.5) over CLEVELAND

• Another Monday night suckfest. Although I think 7.5 is a steal.
  

Since there's no Steeler game this week, I want to take a minute to mention what a huge win that was last week. I went to a local Steeler bar, and the mood prior to the game was almost somber. I think maybe 10 percent of the people in there really truly believed the Steelers had a chance. And when Ben threw that interception that was returned for a touchdown in the first quarter, there wasn't a single person in that place who thought they could win. And for the Jacksonville fans, I actually found myself (the next day) feeling a little badly for them. I've been on their side of losses like that. Where it's primetime, your guys need a win, and the team coming into your house is banged up and missing two or three key starters with another two or three on the verge of being too injured to play, and your guys get off to a huge start and you think, "Yup, we're gonna cruise," and then all of a sudden the other guys are hanging around, keeping it interesting. Your guys make a couple of good things happen, and your cheeering them on saying, come on guys, all we need is one more stop. And then some guy named Mewelde rips off a 19 yard run, and Ben avoids two sacks and turns them into first downs, and then an improbable touchdown. And before you know it the game's over and you're left asking yourself how in the hell you lost. As a diehard who lived to talk about the Bill Cowher era, I know what this feels like. It sucks. Bad. But to be on the other side of that is just fucking awesome.